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FITBIT down 18% - buying opportunity?

Alan
Tue, 05 Jan 2016 21:44:32 GMT

What are people's thoughts on this? Stock is down on news that they will be trying to compete with the Apple Watch. The market is reading this as a massive threat, but I think it could present an opportunity. FITBIT is the #1 wearables company - people seem to be forgetting that they may actually know what they're doing in this space.

Gregory
Tue, 23 Feb 2016 17:27:44 GMT

according too google finance, it is 210 million. From Yahoo, taking today's share price by their market cap, it is around the same. Yahoo key stats lists book value at 3.39/shr, and cash/share at 2.78 (which is simply ~575 million/210 million).

Tim
Tue, 23 Feb 2016 19:32:10 GMT

The negative I see with fit's product is, you have to make an effort to wear & use the device. My wife downloaded a free app on my iphone and it tracks my steps and distance daily. From what I can tell, it's fairly accurate. I'm going to always have my phone and keep it charged. I decided to buy portfolio insurance with morning with May spy 197 puts. I wasted money last October doing the same, but I'll be shocked if large caps don't pullback. 10 SPY May 20 2016 197.0 Put Limit 8.77

Shawn
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 19:58:19 GMT

Mark's latest update says he bailed out of FIT. Is that a buy signal now? :D

Gregory
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 20:17:57 GMT

> @Shawn > Mark's latest update says he bailed out of FIT. Is that a buy signal now? Mark Gome's crack research and timing strikes again. And people want him back here?

Shawn
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 21:54:17 GMT

Well, the funny thing is in his new service's videos when he first mentioned his timing on FIT he said it seemed good risk/reward. Then in the next video he mentioned it, he once again fell back on the "pressured to make a pick excuse." Sigh. In his latest video he floated the idea of a paid service for his real time trades. Aside from making me laugh, I wondered if that means there's an impending resolution to PTT coming. I would assume until that's resolved he can't do another paid service, and he wouldn't waste time talking about it until a conclusion was coming soon-ish.

Alan
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 21:55:32 GMT

Fascicle - you just have to laugh at it all.

Gregory
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 22:27:11 GMT

> @Alan > you just have to laugh at it all. indeed - it is really comical, perhaps of a tragic nature, but still it is a good laugh, and if one can laugh at oneself, then a really good laugh for listening to/believing such a pathological liar and miscreant

Robert M.
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 23:12:16 GMT

Gomes is hilarious. How does everything roll off his back like a duck? Remember his recent remark about the secret of his success -- that timing is everything! And that the actual stocks picked are secondary? What an ass-clown!

Robert M.
Wed, 24 Feb 2016 23:24:01 GMT

Gomes' thesis on FIT was that their products could be ubiquitous in many sectors - like 5-10 years from now. Meanwhile, the stock falls from $31 to $12, within several months! Gomes bails in defeat. And he claims to be the Timing King. What a jerk. This one goes in the same garbage pile as AERO -- another pick largely predicated on something that was supposed to happen down the road (national legalization of marijuana). How's that for timing?

Calvin
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 00:37:17 GMT

he always said he did tech research and consumer trends. I honestly can't fault the tech research. Seems like Himax, ATTU, PXLW, RDCM, MATR are all solid picks. But, AERO, DLIA, FIT, all of the consumer trend stocks have been disastrous.

Shawn
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 01:19:23 GMT

I made a nice bit of money on PXLW and so of course I will give credit to Gomes for the pick. But in retrospect, it was nothing but hype. His thesis of an Apple TV did not pan out, Apple did not need PXLW's technology, and his promotional equating "HIMX won Google" with "PXLW won Apple" and he discovered them ring empty to me. What did PXLW win from Apple other than brief revenues? The company's fundamentals and stock price both nosedived. Apple provided excellent trade opportunities and that's about it. So if you put PXLW in the good tech research column it at least needs a big fat asterisk. FIT's market cap right now is about what the company's conservative estimates for 2016 revenues are and it has no debt and $700M in the bank. Even as people point out their declining market share % YOY at the same time they've been growing revenues substantially in the US and most overseas markets. I'm not sure I buy the GoPro comparisons. I'm never going to invest a lot of money in this one, but I did buy a little today.

Calvin
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 02:06:20 GMT

I accept what you are saying, but I also accept Mark's point that is about handicapping probabilities. Knowing that himx and pxlw had these relationships before most everyone else, even if they did not turn out to be particularly beneficial, was in impressive and lucrative insight. Gsat I think will be similar, I think their tech is useless and they will go bankrupt, but when mark picked it there was a better chance of success than the stock price represented. Fitbit seems like a master stroke of fuckuppery. Picked too high and aborted 60% lower. Hard to see what the fundamental change has been.

Robert M.
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 10:28:08 GMT

Calvin, I agree. Why would Gomes bail on FIT so quickly if the thesis isn't broken? Just because the stock is down? Yet he held on to GLUU when the stock crashed, even when his original thesis was proven invalid. There seems to be no rhyme or reason - no consistency with Gomes' actions.

Alan
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 10:40:52 GMT

> @Gregory > if one can laugh at oneself, then a really good laugh for listening to/believing such a pathological liar and miscreant My biggest laughs are at myself... and this one is certainly a knee-slapper. There is certainly value in some of his lessons/research but its marred by dishonesty, inconsistency, intransparency and a thinly-veiled massive ego. You have to wade through a lot of bullshit to find the useful parts of what he does.

Gregory
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 17:28:05 GMT

> @Robert M. > There seems to be no rhyme or reason – no consistency with Gomes' actions. I agree, he almost seems off the deep end. It is all over the place. Funny if it weren't so sad and knowing others are falling for the crap. For FitBit, I could see it as a public hedge. If it falls, he can say he got out at the right time. If it recovers, he can say listen to the methodology, I was too emotional...or the best: I held onto it in my personal account....

kurt
Thu, 25 Feb 2016 18:33:32 GMT

And Mark is back to showing R/R charts when it became proprietary on PTT, with a buy and hold strategy for all but himself. I am glad i did trade out and take some profits but I am still holding a few which may never see the light of day. Might need to ask for the actual shares so I can wipe my ass with them after the company goes bankrupt. Cheers, Kurt

Capricon
Fri, 06 May 2016 08:51:34 GMT

FIT down 18% today to $13 , in SA article comment Mark is saying he is shorting FIT .... in 3 months how come his LONG core pick become a SHORT ?

kurt
Fri, 06 May 2016 14:06:09 GMT

LOL. Please ask him that question on SA and we can all await the response. Many of his pick after he left this site have moved up, and many that he carried forward he has reverse his original long stance. Like GLUU which he has since sold.

Capricon
Fri, 06 May 2016 19:10:49 GMT

Here is Sir Mark Gomes reply "Author’s reply » Yes, I moved on from FIT for the reasons outlined by Babbeone. I'm in complete agreement with his assessment and would sooner be *short* the stock than long at this point. The risk/reward initially looked favorable, based on its mission to revolutionize the healthcare industry. However, in my opinion, the data now shows that they will not be able to fulfill that mission. Like GPRO and its dying mission to revolutionize content creation, FIT's dying mission makes them "just a device manufacturer", which flips the risk/reward from bullish to bearish"

Gregory
Fri, 06 May 2016 19:12:45 GMT

ok looks like time to buy

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