Looks like this is a classic case of buy on the rumor and sell on the news. But when it drops it becomes a buying opportunity.....at some point.
Interesting. I work in Med device and I could see a few companies wanting to have a crack at this from an acquisition standpoint as being a start up in Med device these days is a tough go alone for long. Think of Stryker buying Mako Surgical. Intuitive (ISRG) is what most might think as a suitor they have the cash and/or valuation to do it without being that dilutive...but strategically, IMHO they would want to shelve it so as not to cannibalize the existing business. But I see J&J or Medtronic also as potential suitors. At $350M market cap it's a pretty rich valuation on it's own but a buyout for $600-$700M is plausible. (ISRG does $2.7B in revs) I wish they were a bit clearer on the "compelling economic value" of the system they are touting but given their pre-approval status that's probably too much to wish for at this stage. With Davinci robots selling for over $1M, one could argue that Intuitive's install base of willing customers is nearing or at its zenith. They are fiercely working to create and sell consumable attachments which provide a per procedure revenu e stream. Things like stapling devices, electrosurgical probes etc. is where they are focused. Now if TRXC offered their robot at $500K or less then it could be game on. but as one of our fellow members put it WTFDIK. ;p
A bit more commentary on ISRG regarding their revenue stream. This came from their most recent annual report. "We generate revenue from both the initial capital sales of da Vinci Surgical Systems and from subsequent sales of instruments, accessories and service, as recurring revenue. The da Vinci Surgical System generally sells for approximately between $0.6 million and $2.5 million, depending upon configuration and geography, and represents a significant capital equipment investment for our customers. We generate recurring revenue as our customers purchase our EndoWrist and Single-Site instrument and accessory products used in performing procedures with the da Vinci Surgical System. Our instruments and accessories have a limited life and will either expire or wear out as they are used in surgery, at which point they are replaced. Also, we generate recurring revenue from ongoing system service. We typically enter into service contracts at the time systems are sold at an annual rate of approximately $100,000 to $170,000 per year, depending upon the configuration of the un derlying system and composition of the services offered under the contract. These service contracts have generally been renewed at the end of the initial contractual service periods. Recurring revenue has generally grown at a faster rate than system revenue in the last few fiscal years. Recurring revenue increased to $1.7 billion, or 70% of total revenue in 2015, compared with $1.5 billion, or 70% of total revenue in 2014 and $1.4 billion, or 63% of total revenue in 2013. The growth of recurring revenue and its increasing proportion of total revenue largely reflect continued procedure adoption on a growing base of installed da Vinci Surgical Systems. The installed base of da Vinci Surgical Systems has grown to approximately 3,597 at December 31, 2015, compared with 3,266 at December 31, 2014, and 2,966 at December 31, 2013. " So as you can see 70% of revenues comes from consumables/service agreements. Unless TRXC can produce those consumables or be acquired by a larger company that can, the revenues will come from capital sales which have long selling cycles and are one time opportunities for the most part.
Patrick, thanks for the insight and details. I have been looking to see whether TRCX has a line of products to go with their system, but cannot find any references. I am sure they have to have them but it would be nice to know the details. I have seen a nice run up on the stock prices and have sold half my position and now play with house money. Recent hype provided a nice return. Now I see an article about a potential pump scheme and have a limit on the down side to avoid catastrophic loss after their planned offering. Truly a speculative play and caution is warranted. Kurt
Based on the conference call they are adapting current technology to fit their SurgiBot system so that would help any future revenue stream. I think anyone hold this stock is hoping for FDA approval by the end of March, a ramp up in the sales force and some actual sales to justify the companies existence. Reminds me of company called Palomar medical (PMTI) which finally paid off nicely and then was bought out. And the disclosure from the auditor about concern of whether they are a going concern is, IMHO, normal. Cheers, Kurt