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Earnings - Stock Price Slide

Jeffrey
Wed, 04 Nov 2015 17:44:34 GMT

We've watched GLUU get destroyed since the Tencent deal. I was banking on the $6.00 price tag as insurance against a major pullpack, but we are close to a 50% decline since the deal was announced. Guidance was light last quarter, so the bar is set lower for this quarters earnings. Does anyone have any thoughts on the market's reaction to good or bad earnings, light guidance, etc.? I can't imagine this falling below $3.00, but that's not far away at this point. Why would anyone buy at these levels? What is happening to the share price doesn't align with anything we've been presented in PTT Research.

kurt
Wed, 11 Nov 2015 21:13:41 GMT

That is a weekly chart, so depending upon your trading window, from a weekly perspective we are at the inflection point and will likely trend sideways for the remainder of the year. So I am a buyer at this level and a seller (trim my position) at or near the red resistance line. Not sure of your trading timeline, but I am not a day trader, rather a swing trader with an average of 1-3 months holding a position. Depending upon daily stock price volatility I set my trailing stops and if we are at the resistance line I use option to protect profits. The right option is cheap insurance to guarantee a profit, even if slightly smaller. After pushing past resistance GLUU has broken down each time and slide to the uptrend line and then rebounded. If you held since it became a PTT triple, you have given away profit in the process. And yes, I book losses on a regular basis, but having cut those short I am still doing well in a crappy market. Hopefully, GLUU mgmt can get the next hit out the door and replicate that success. Hopefully GLUU will trend higher in the short term and yet again hit resistance and slide or maybe continue the uptrend and find my resistance to be support before it catapults higher. I hope I am on the right side when that happens. Cheers.

KAMRAN
Thu, 12 Nov 2015 00:43:51 GMT

Kurt - good for you if you have made money on Gluu...it does seem the ideal trader's stock...i'm more of a buy and hold sort of guy. I did buy some long dated calls in the recent fall to $4, which are all deeply underwater.

kurt
Thu, 12 Nov 2015 01:02:09 GMT

Have made some money on GLUU stock but playing the R/W charts/trends and I normally do have a long position which gets trimmed during run ups to my resistance line. Long is relative to the run up to resistance. As for long dated calls, I hope you are more that 6 months out before expiration and depending upon your strike you might be ok. Time decay is a real killer that I have learned the hard way and I am still foolish at times with shorter term expirations. My fear with GLUU too many games like KKD and they become common place and cannibalize each other. Keep an eye on the charts, channels and volume to understand how strong the trend is, either up or down. Cheers!

Jeffrey
Fri, 13 Nov 2015 15:41:01 GMT

Kurt - I agree...you can make money (or not lose as much money) by selling covered calls which is what I've done on occasion.

KAMRAN
Fri, 13 Nov 2015 16:07:30 GMT

i'm not a fan of covered calls for stocks like Gluu with such high volatility...i'm in it for the 3 bagger, would hate to see myself called away if the stock spikes...I guess you could do it for a non core part of your allocation but still.

Jeffrey
Fri, 13 Nov 2015 16:19:22 GMT

Kamran - i agree...but during earnings season, it helped lessen the pain a ton.

THE-DOC
Fri, 04 Dec 2015 23:27:00 GMT

GLUU is KILLING ME, down over $30,000 already......... Could've, would've should've taken the $70,000 or some when I had the chance. But shell shock from GTAT, faith as a new-comer to this site, and 'some-one' emphatically implying the 'NEXT STOP IS $10' allowed me to continue to make the same BAD investment mistakes I used to make (to a lesser extent) on my own ! How sad and fiscally DANGEROUS for some members here, me included !!!!

Tim
Fri, 04 Dec 2015 23:57:36 GMT

Glu is killing me too. Down 29%. But, what I really like about glu is, we can measure their success by their game's numbers. Glu now has KKH, RR, DH, Cooking dash and Tap sports baseball as major brands in the top 100. Soon there will be six with KPP and seven with the jenner sisters...etc. Dropping this much has killed margin buyers, forcing lower lows and allowed shorts to pile on. Tax selling will end sometime this month too. I sold some shares in a stock today nobody wanted six months ago...for 800% gains. Hold on to this one for better days.

Kris
Sat, 05 Dec 2015 13:44:56 GMT

For the past five years this stock has oscillated between 2-3 and 4-5 with some brief periods above 5. In retrospect accumulating shares anytime they start with a 2 and selling at 4 or above is the only thing that worked. (Actually going short at 5 or above would have been a nice kicker.) Hindsight is of course 20-20 but what it tells me is that the investment community continues to see GLUU as a "hit" company. So they get short-term credit for a solid performance but then because things ramp down quickly and they fail at times (like with the latest deerhunter) the stock goes back to where it was. I think the analysis here on GLUU has been just fine and they have done some amazing things - the KK game was an eye-popping success and has changed the industry. But the market doesn't see the stock that way and at this point it might take at least a year of flawless and *building* performance to overcome the positioning the company has. I moved on from GLUU since it was clear that being long was fighting the market and none of us has the power to win that fight.

THE-DOC
Wed, 09 Dec 2015 15:25:38 GMT

DOWN at 2-year LOW's ???? Why weren't we strongly advised to CLOSE and/or seriously reduce our positions in GLUU at $7.00 highs ............................. I'm seriously losing faith folks, I'm a Dr. NOT finacial guru, it's the reason I pay someone else to GUIDE me. It's not working and I'm becoming very concerned here amigoes .......................: (((

Florent
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 08:44:04 GMT

Market pressure is high on small caps it seems. They are the first to pay and the first to enjoy high growth. Look at MATR, also went from 8$ to 6.66$ without any reason other than market. People are keeping cash at the moment. You need both money pouring into stocks AND strong earnings/catalyst for Glu to go back to it's 6-8$ level. This will take time unfortunately. Catalyst: soon. KP is out next week. Jenner probably in two months or so. Market: If I knew that I would be retired already :-)

karl
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 17:22:36 GMT

DOC, PPT is not your financial adviser or your stock broker. It is basically a newsletter service which comes out once a week with information to which you make decisions and take responsibility for.

Jeffrey
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 17:42:05 GMT

Karl - it's obvious by DOCs posts that he's frustrated with what he perceives as the value of the newsletter he's paying for. PTT was never marketed as a 'basic newsletter service' that comes out once a week. People pay a very significant premium for PTT (poised to TRIPLE) research and there are expectations that comes with that, and whether or not PTT is meeting those expectations is arguable.. No need to school DOC, I'm sure he's fully aware he owns his decisions.

karl
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 17:54:20 GMT

^ I don't think he is because he's been complaining for months about the same thing. I sold all my Gluu in two lots between 6.65 and 6.71 using PPT newletter basics and common sense. I'm not a stock broker either and i'm most likely half the age of most subscribers. The only time I am annoyed with PPT is when the newsletter does not come out on time with no explanation or if they advise to hold when a stock is unrealistically high like what happened with Gluu back when it first shot to over 7 dollars and we were told to hold until over 10. That steps out of the bounds of what we pay for and was why i didn't sell the first time around. A lot of you guys are always whining like as if PPT is somehow personally responsible for all your mistakes. Even when PPT directly advised not to sell over 7 way back and i subsequently didn't sell i accepted responsibility for myself. It was a 60k hit for me which i could have scored at the push of a button but i made the decision not to sell.

Jeffrey
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 18:06:47 GMT

Maybe DOC is just more vocal than some. I have a laundry list of issues with PTT, but don't air all of them on this board. You sound like you've had some issues, but keep most of them to yourself. PTT isn't responsible for people's investing decisions, I totally get that. BUT, if I had a financial advisor that I paid to help make with my decision making process, and I wasn't happy (and it was justifiable), I'd fire them and move on. Ultimately the 'market', meaning subscribers, will dictate what happens with any company and their product.

Robert M.
Thu, 10 Dec 2015 22:43:32 GMT

Karl wrote: "...if they advise to hold when a stock is unrealistically high like what happened with Gluu back when it first shot to over 7 dollars and we were told to hold until over 10. That steps out of the bounds of what we pay for" I thought we paid for stocks that have the potential to triple? $10 was the triple target fur GLUU. Perhaps you would be better off with a swing-trade or day-trading newsletter. I too had a problem with Mark's call for GLUU hitting $10 by Christmas that year. But it wasn't the price target that bothered me, It was the short-term timeframe that he put on it. And that just lured in more swing-traders to try to keep the momentum going. Yes, in hindsight, $7 was unreasonably high to be holding GLUU at the time. But hindsight is 20/20, and Mark had valid reasons to believe the stock was worth $10 at that moment.

David
Fri, 11 Dec 2015 04:22:18 GMT

Same thing happened with JAKK recently. When the price was on a roll the guidance from PTT was the price could reach the $16~$20 range, or the company could be bought out. Eventually that may prove correct, but in the short term the price for JAKK has dropped after hitting the top of the RR channel. JAKK heading lower, GLUU is at a multi-year low, and our research this week is to fill out a survey on the Methodology, which, by the way tells us to hold our stock position if there is no news from PTT to do otherwise. Oddly enough this particular rule from the Methodology was not included in the recent survey.

Shawn
Fri, 11 Dec 2015 06:24:03 GMT

I distinctly remember PTT saying $10 was near the top of the RR channel for JAKK and they didn't see a reason for it to be much higher than that price for the rest of the year. I'm mostly sure I didn't imagine that. Anyhow, at the Wedbush Conference Niccolo De Masi confirmed Katy Perry Pop is coming out on Dec 17th. There's been hand-wringing about another delay from loud voices at StockTwits and Yahoo and Seeking Alpha but now we know only a week or so to see how this celebrity mumbo jumbo really pans out. I was surprised when he was asked questions at this conference no one asked him about DH16 and EW missing the mark by 75%.

THE-DOC
Fri, 11 Dec 2015 16:51:24 GMT

Yup, frustrated is about right ! But if MG can allude to a $10 peak arriving soon, and I remember his 'apology' for being human too, he can strongly allude to deep valleys approaching, 'watch-out-below' ! I own my decisions wholeheartedly, but I pay for a service to deliver prime picks to triple, every 2-years or so. This clearly hasn't happened and, hence my severe disappointment with the performance of my PTT-portfolio.Didn't mean to sound like a whiner, just felt I could express myself on this forum and possibly hear others as well. ThanX for the 'back' Jeff !

Tim
Sun, 13 Dec 2015 17:26:36 GMT

My opinion, one of the main problems with microcap picks lately is, the Russell 2000 index price crash. It was close to 1300 mid summer and near 1100 now. It's like trying to make progress paddling upstream. All of us have to be much more precise with our portfolio picks in a falling market. The easy years may be over for a while. That said, as my #1 stock, I still love glu because they have so much cash and their management is smart and just got smarter with new additions. The way I use PTT is, I look at Mark's picks and then decide whether to invest in them. I love the way Mark keeps each portfolio holdings to a max of 10%. I currently have 13 positions in my portfolio. Two PTT picks in Glu & Rdcm and two others he just wrote about in the past. My strategy and goal is to find a microcap company/stock that I really like and seems to be undervalued or unknown. Then try and buy shares as cheaply as possible, or just take a position if I think their future is bright. Once I take a core position, I mostly hold for long term gains if things still seem positive. That seems to be Mark's goal too. If the price turns against me like glu has done, I have no problem holding waiting got their potential to unfold, as long as management is honest & smart, their product market/sector is growing and share structure simple to understand. One of my best stocks has bought six companies in six year with cash & shares. I expect glu will be buying something soon. But, I understand subscribers being frustrated. I'm sure PTT's management are not super happy right now either. If it were really easy to buy good companies at undervalued prices, the majority of investors wouldn't be in mutual funds. I'm sure Mark is working hard to find the next pick that is PTT. He has a great track record and I'm sure they are working thru this tough time to pick winners. One suggestion I have, is maybe get some feedback from his clients here, on some of the picks they own. We know our own stocks as well as anyone. Doesn't mean he has to use them, but at least take a look. Hope you guys hang on for better days.

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